Price of crude: Reversal of fortune

“All politics is local,” the Washington adage goes. As oil markets proved this year, ultimately all commodities are local too.

The price of crude is a headline financial indicator. But in 2011, commentators and investors were confronted by an almost philosophical problem: what is the price of crude?

The world’s two big oil benchmarks which, historically, traded in parallel, slowly diverged.

Brent, from the North Sea, was $115 a barrel in mid-October. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate in the US was $87 at the same time – a $28 gap.

One price told a very different story about the global economy from the other. The price gap also muddied the thesis of investors who had bet money on commodities as a way to harness global growth and hedge against inflation. Oil was not following the script.

Reasons for Brent’s relative strength included the lingering impact of lower output from revolutionary Libya, a big crude supplier to Europe.

In the US, WTI’s relative weakness was partly explained by poor demand for motor fuel in an economy still not fully recovered from financial crisis.

But the best explanation for the wide spread is very local.

Thanks to resurgent production in the US and Canada, crude was flowing into the delivery point for WTI futures at Cushing, Oklahoma faster than it could flow out.

This led to concerns a glut would develop, depressing the WTI price.

Analysts were torn over how long this difference could last, with some projecting it would widen to $50 a barrel and others arguing traders would figure out a way to move cheap WTI-linked crude closer to the price of Brent.

On November 16, the latter seemed vindicated when Enbridge, a Canadian pipeline company, said it would purchase 50 per cent of the Seaway pipeline running into Cushing and reverse it to run south to the Gulf of Mexico. The spread quickly narrowed to about $10.

“Crude oil is extraordinarily efficient, internationally. Gaps that exist, exist for very short periods of time,” says James Dyer, chief executive at Blueknight Energy Partners and a senior executive at Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader. Blueknight owns crude oil storage tanks in Cushing.

Enbridge and its joint venture partner, Enterprise Products Partners, said the reversed line would carry 150,000 barrels a day by the middle of 2012. By early 2013, capacity would rise to 400,000 b/d.

JPMorgan, the investment bank, estimates that with the reversal, WTI crude’s discount to Brent will shrink to $5 a barrel by the end of 2012, and just a few dollars by the end of 2013.

But some estimates show the volumes Seaway will carry are far less than the amount set to pour into Cushing in coming years, as production bounces higher in places such as the Permian Basin in west Texas, the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Canada’s oil sands.

Other projects to avert a glut at Cushing, which held a record 42m barrels of stock last April, include unit trains carrying oil directly from North Dakota to the Gulf of Mexico, barges floating crude down the Mississippi River and plans by Magellan Midstream Partners to reverse a pipeline to funnel 135,000 b/d of crude from west Texas to the Gulf coast.

“You can’t just assume that oil is oil,” says David Greely, oil analyst at Goldman Sachs, the investment bank. “Location matters, and you need to pay attention to what is happening to the infrastructure underlying the individual markets.”

Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6032249a-2704-11e1-b7ec-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1i2iwpKa6

Gold: Haven turns riskier but retains its appeal

Bewitched, bothered and bewildered – that is how many gold bulls have felt in recent months. As the eurozone crisis has ratcheted up to fever pitch, their beloved precious metal – supposedly a haven against precisely this sort of financial market turmoil – has barely budged in price.

Since mid-October, gold has traded in an uninspiring range of roughly $1,650-$1,750 a troy ounce.

More worryingly for its supporters, the metal appears to be moving more closely in line with risky assets such as equities and emerging-market currencies than other havens such as US Treasuries.

“There has been a lot of disappointment with gold in the fourth quarter, especially from those who were banking on the metal’s safe haven properties, given the escalating situation in Europe,” says Edel Tully, precious metals strategist at UBS, the Swiss bank, in London.

The problems began in September. After hitting a record of $1,920 early in the month, gold collapsed 20 per cent in a matter of days. It was the metal’s sharpest weekly fall since 1983.

The plunge came amid a broader market sell-off, surprising some investors who had assumed that holding gold could act as a form of insurance against bullish positions in other commodities or equities.

The reason for the sharp fall was simple: as investors were rapidly losing money on other positions, they sold their gold to raise cash.

However, it caused investors to question gold’s claim to be a “safe-haven” asset. The metal’s case has not been helped in the months since, when gold has tended to rise as risk appetite rises, and fall when risk appetite wanes.

The dominant theme has been a “dash for cash”.

Most prominent among the investors forced to sell was John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who shot to prominence with an enormously profitable bet against the subprime mortgage market during the financial crisis.

Over the third quarter, Mr Paulson’s fund sold more than a third of its holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares exchange traded fund, equivalent to about 34 tonnes.

Elsewhere, European banks have been using their gold holdings to raise cash amid a widespread shortage of dollars in the region.

Dealers say that banks – primarily in continental Europe – have been actively lending gold in the market in exchange for dollars. The move has pushed gold lease rates – the implied interest rate for lending gold in the market in exchange for dollars – to record lows.

The one-month gold lease rate in December hit -0.57 per cent, suggesting that a bank lending gold for one month would have to pay to do so, at an annualised rate of 0.57 per cent.

“Gold is a function of liquidity,” says Walter de Wet, head of commodities research at Standard Bank. “Certainly there has been a lack of liquidity, particularly in the interbank market in Europe. That is putting a drag on gold.”

But while investors are feeling bruised, few are ready to call time on bullion’s decade-long rally.

“Commodity hedge funds are still involved in trading gold. It is still a popular trade,” says Fabio Cortes, manager of a commodities fund of funds for Oakley Capital, the private equity firm in London. Of the metal’s safe haven appeal, he adds: “It hasn’t lost it – it has been reduced to some extent.”

Indeed, the fundamental drivers of the surge remain in place. Central banks are buying record quantities of the metal. The so-called “official sector” bought 364 tonnes of gold in the first three quarters of this year, according to data from Thomson Reuters GFMS, the precious metals consultancy, compared with sales of more than 400 tonnes a year in the decade to 2009.

Moreover, Chinese demand is increasing rapidly as Beijing deregulates the country’s gold market.

Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong have hit record levels in recent months, and the country is on track to more than double imports from last year.

Matthew Turner, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi, the Japanese trading house, argues that the crucial determinant of whether gold lives up to its safe-haven billing is whether investors fear inflation.

“At different times investors seek different safe havens. During equity market crashes, investors tend to seek safety in the dollar, or bonds, and only sometimes gold,” he says. “Other financial panics might involve investors selling government bonds or fleeing the dollar due to rising fears of inflation. In these scenarios, gold can outperform.”

This suggests the trigger for gold’s next move is likely to be the actions of central banks – particularly the European Central Bank, which many investors believe will be forced to provide a backstop to the eurozone by more aggressively intervening in the sovereign bond markets.

In the second quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of this year – the two moments when the ECB moved to expand its bond-buying activities – gold demand jumped.

For next year, the ECB is likely to be the key to gold’s performance.

As Ms Tully predicts, if the ECB were to embark on a policy of quantitative easing, it would have “explosive implications for gold”.

Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6e68b5e2-24d9-11e1-8bf9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1i2iwpKa6

Forex traders hunt for fresh havens

Investors looking for havens from the eurozone crisis have had a frustrating year.

Central banks in countries that have attracted people trying to seek shelter in their currency have sent a firm message: only a limited number of investors are welcome here.

That has left investors hunting for havens outside the US dollar, which has attracted huge inflows this year from those looking for somewhere liquid to park their cash.

But analysts say that there are fresh haven opportunities in 2012. They point to the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar as among those currencies that could do well in times of market stress.

New currency havens next year would be welcomed by investors who have this year found themselves thwarted by unexpected foreign exchange interventions.

For the first half of the year, the yen and the Swiss franc were seen as ideal. Haven currencies – also referred to as “hard” currencies – are usually those that are backed by stable governments and economies. Strong exports and current account surpluses, which Japan and Switzerland possess, are key factors as they are likely to shore up demand for a currency.

But following the market turmoil over the summer, the demand for the yen and the franc grew so high that the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan took steps to weaken their respective currencies.

Alarmed by the rate at which foreign money was flooding in from investors concerned about the escalating eurozone crisis, the Bank of Japan embarked on its biggest monthly foreign exchange intervention in eight years in August. That sent the yen, which had risen more than 5 per cent against the dollar since January, tumbling nearly 5 per cent in one day.

The move was welcomed by the country’s exporters, who had been complaining that a strong yen was harming trade. But foreign investors were undeterred. The central bank sold more yen on October 31 after the currency hit its strongest ever level against the US dollar.

Then, on September 6, the Swiss National Bank said it was prepared to buy euros in unlimited quantities to weaken the Swiss franc, effectively pegging its currency to the euro. Markets opted not to test its resolve.

Investors instead began looking for the next best haven. Some have pointed to Norway, a big oil exporter with a current account surplus.

Indeed, HSBC’s currency analysts argue that the krone is “in a league of its own” against other G10 currencies due to Norway’s strong economic fundamentals.

But others have raised concerns over liquidity. Investors this year have prioritised liquidity above most other factors, fearing that any “lock down” in markets will leave them unable to get their cash out quickly and return it to shareholders or other investors. That explains why the US dollar has been the ultimate haven this year.

Trade in the Japanese yen accounts for 19 per cent of the $4tn a day foreign exchange market. Trade in the Swiss franc is more than 6 per cent. In the krone it is just 1.3 per cent, according to the latest data available from the Bank for International Settlements.

“The main problem is finding something that has all the constituents of a safe haven,” says Simon Derrick, currency analyst at BNY Mellon. “The thing that everyone forgets is liquidity.”

The pound is another contentious haven. Sterling has tended to strengthen this year when the euro weakens, as the UK economy has looked in better shape than that of the eurozone. But if the outlook for Europe deteriorates significantly, the UK is very exposed through its trade links. That has led some to label the pound a “bogus” haven.

Others believe the Canadian dollar could come to the fore. The so-called “loonie” is backed by a politically stable country, with large reserves racked up by the central bank. On the downside, it is traditionally referred to as a commodity currency because of its oil exports, making its performance closely tied to that of the global economy. Its strong trade links with the US also make it susceptible to any weakening in the US economy.

However, Simon Derrick, currency analyst at BNY Mellon, argues that those who believe the US dollar will be a decent haven next year should consider diversifying into the Canadian dollar, as that should rise against other major currencies if the US dollar does well.

Investors hopeful of less government intervention to weaken currencies next year could be disappointed. The SNB believes the franc is still significantly overvalued. Many analysts believe the central bank will still adjust the ceiling at which it will buy euros to weaken the franc again next year.

The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to take further action, though in the past intervention has not managed to weaken the yen for more than a few days due to the vast size of the market. As a result, many analysts still believe the yen will be a key haven next year.

But most agree the US dollar will remain the least contentious haven for 2012. “The anticipated relative outperformance of the US economy, especially if continued to be supported by fiscal and monetary policy, is expected to provide continued support for the dollar in the coming year. We maintain our view that the dollar and the yen will be the top performers among the G10 in 2012,” says Morgan Stanley.

Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3fc72532-2d78-11e1-b985-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1i2eOMioF

Private equity looks to asset-backed loans

Private equity groups in Europe are increasingly turning towards asset-backed loans as they look to fill the financing gap left by retrenching banks.

GE Capital, one of the largest pan-European providers of such loans, is forecasting a wave of asset based lending deals in 2012 after this year saw such financing becoming more attractive to buy-out groups.

The lending arm of US industrial conglomerate General Electric said financing facilities given to private equity backed mid-market companies had shot up to $1.3bn in 2011 from almost zero in the year before.

Stephan Caron, chief commercial officer in the UK, said he expected asset-backed lending to grow even further next year as GE Capital’s current pipeline of deals had already approached the size of this year’s financing facilities.

Private equity groups have recently struggled to find loans to fund takeovers as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has shrunk bank debt and high yield markets.

This dearth in deal financing has prompted private equity groups to look for alternatives such as dollar-denominated debt, mezzanine loans – a hybrid funding tool that ranks between equity and debt – and asset backed lending. In this form of lending, a company’s receivables, inventory or plant and equipment are used to secure the loan.

It is mostly taken on by small and medium-sized enterprises across Europe to finance their working capital needs.

In this type of lending, the loan-provider monitors the underlying asset’s performance much more closely than in traditional forms of financing.

Turnover in Europe’s accounts receivable finance market, which makes up the bulk of asset-backed lending, grew by 19 per cent to €479bn in the first half of 2011, according to data from the EU Federation of Factoring and Commercial Finance.

In private equity, this form of lending has traditionally been the last resort for buy-out deals that have turned sour. But this has changed with the financial crisis.

“In the past few years we have seen a lot of performing private equity companies turn to asset backed lending as chief financial officers sought to diversify their sources of financing,” Mr Caron said.

One example is a £150m asset-based lending facility that GE Capital provided to Accolade Wines, which operates in the UK and Australia and owns brands such as Hardys and Banrock Station.

The facility was agreed last month to help Champ Private Equity, Accolade’s owner since early 2011, to fund the working capital and capital expenditure needs of the company.

Mr Caron said the looming wall of debt maturities in the private equity sector would trigger further demand.

“We expect a lot more companies to turn to asset-backed lending as they seek to refinance their debt,” he said.

Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a3dffb98-3183-11e1-a62a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1i2eOMioF

Hose and dry: The ECB fills banks with funds

WHEN economists think of the financial system, it is usually as a frictionless conduit through which money flows to areas of the economy where it is most needed. A better analogy right now might be of a hosepipe with a knot tied in it. The European Central Bank (ECB) is pumping unprecedented amounts of money into one end of the pipe, but how much of that will find its way to the parched real economy is another question entirely.

Start with the liquidity flowing into the euro-area banking system. On December 21st the ECB made available an eye-popping €489 billion ($628 billion) in three-year loans to more than 500 banks across Europe. The money was released in response to an almost total freeze since July in the bond markets that are an important source of long-term funding for banks. Demand for this ECB funding was much higher than expected, signalling just how much stress there is in the system.

The ECB had previously tried to ease pressure by offering one-year loans to banks. Yet this had done little to encourage them to lend to companies or people, since the money banks owed the ECB would have to be repaid before they were due to be repaid by their customers. A shortage of longer-term funding also contributed to an increase in the riskiness of the whole financial system, since banks were being forced to rely ever more on short-term financing that needs to be rolled over.

The flood of money being pumped into banks by the ECB goes a long way towards easing these funding pressures. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, reckon that the new facility adds about €235 billion in additional funding to the banks (since some of the money is being used to replace shorter-term loans) and takes the central bank’s total lending to the banking system to €979 billion. More important is the fact that it only has to be repaid in three years, which takes the average maturity on ECB loans to about 21 months, up from a mere ten weeks before the auction.

This should help insulate most large banks from turmoil in the funding markets. But not all will be protected. Although the ECB has essentially made an offer of unlimited funds, banks are still constrained in how much they may borrow by the quality of the collateral that they are able to hand over. This is because their collateral is subject to an initial “haircut”, or reduction in value. A portfolio of relatively safe government bonds might attract a small haircut, whereas one consisting of loans to small businesses might be reduced in value by 40% or more. A bank focused on this area of business, as many of Europe’s smaller savings banks are, might thus only be able to borrow 60% of the value of its outstanding loans.

A second constraint is that if the collateral the ECB holds falls in value, then banks need to post more. This also happens if there are credit downgrades on the bonds posted as collateral. The ECB’s haircut on sovereign bonds that are rated above “A-” is just 1.5%, but if they fall another notch this jumps up to 6.5%, Morgan Stanley notes. Weak banks in peripheral countries remain vulnerable to a downward spiral in which their holdings of government bonds are downgraded and fall in value, forcing them to come up with ever more collateral to keep borrowing from the central bank. It was this sort of collateral spiral that felled MF Global, a bust American broker, in its ill-fated bet on euro-area government bonds.

Now that banks are getting funding, the big worry is whether they will do more than merely hoard it. The early signs are not encouraging. Over the Christmas weekend bank deposits at the ECB rose to a record €412 billion. That partly reflects a traditional year-end rush to tidy up banks’ balance-sheets but also nervousness about lending directly to others.

Banks also have to present plans in January showing how they will raise an extra €115 billion in core capital to meet a new threshold imposed by the European Banking Authority. This capital shortfall has already prompted asset sales by banks, which would rather shrink their balance-sheets than tap shareholders. The ECB’s auction may make a credit crunch less severe, but it is not enough to avoid one.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21542187

Ever hopeful: Investors approach 2012 with cautious optimism

INVESTORS nearly always enter a new year with a sense of hope. The mistakes of the previous year—the bad share picks, the wrong guesses on exchange-rate movements—are forgotten. New cash is put to work and there is often a “January effect” as share prices rise.

It would be no surprise if history repeated itself in 2012. True, Europe may already be in recession and the region’s politicians have not yet come up with a solution to the sovereign-debt crisis. But 2011 was such a dismal year for European equities that many investors must hope that the bad news is already in the price.

After all, equities look more attractive than government bonds. Ten-year German bonds yield less than 2%; German shares have a yield of 3.6%, with the prospect of dividend growth thrown in. “Trailing” price-earnings ratios in Europe are barely in the double digits; in Germany the multiple is under ten. And the corporate sector is in good shape, having generated high margins in recent years and built up cash on its balance-sheet.

Investors can be pretty sure about the direction of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has already indicated that it will not raise rates, and another round of quantitative easing might be introduced if the American economy wobbles. The Bank of England seems likely to follow a similar path. In Europe it is hard to see the European Central Bank repeating its 2011 mistake, when it raised rates prematurely; further cuts are possible. The developing world will probably present a more mixed picture, but easing will be more common than tightening.

Central banks can be so supportive in part because headline inflation rates are expected to fall, as the commodity-price rises seen in early 2011 slip out of the annual comparisons. But central banks will also be conscious of the need to offset the effects of fiscal policy, which is likely to be contractionary. America may have reached a short-term deal on extending the payroll-tax cut, but austerity is likely to hold sway across Europe as the region seeks to reassure investors (and German voters) about its long-term fiscal probity.

It is this issue that suggests that any initial investor optimism may be tempered as 2012 unfolds. Like children asked to eat spinach for breakfast, lunch and dinner, it is not clear how long voters will submit to a diet of austerity. The implicit deal between northern and southern euro-zone countries—bail-outs in return for deficit reduction—is unpopular with electorates on both sides. The so-called “tail risk” of a euro-zone break-up may not materialise, but it will not go away either.

Nor will the political outlook in America necessarily be helpful. Markets traditionally favour Republican candidates. But were the Republicans to take control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, there would be the prospect of aggressive fiscal tightening in 2013, along with a political leadership hostile to further quantitative easing. Meanwhile, to shore up his political base, President Barack Obama might amplify the millionaire-bashing theme of his re-election campaign.

Geopolitical risks could undermine the market, too. The Middle East remains volatile. Egypt’s revolution could go sour, Syria is a charnel-house and Iran is prone to sudden eruptions.

The fundamental problem that has dogged the economy, and equity markets, since 2008 will remain. Growth is likely to be slow as economies emerge from a debt crisis. Authorities can intervene to prevent a repeat of the Depression but the result is still likely to be sluggish rebounds with more frequent recessions. Add in the effect of high commodity prices (a consequence of the developing world’s increased importance) and it is hard to generate the kind of multi-year rally that marked the 1980s and 1990s.

This does not mean investors cannot make money. Even Japan has had some 50% rallies within its long bear market. But it does mean that “buy and hold” is not necessarily a winning strategy.

At the start of 2011 almost everyone (with honourable exceptions, such as the strategy team at Société Générale) was bullish. The outcome was deeply disappointing. As 2012 begins, the mood is more restrained. A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey in December found that 8% of fund managers were overweight equities (relative to their normal portfolio allocation). Such caution looks realistic.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21542218

Bond Buying Proves Poisonous for Pensions

Today's economic medicine carries harmful side effects.

Bond buying, known as quantitative easing, or QE, may have boosted growth and lowered corporate borrowing costs, according to a Bank of England analysis. But it is playing havoc with pension funds. Deficits have ballooned by £74 billion ($116 billion) as a direct result of the BOE's bond-buying program, estimates Pension Corp., an insurer.

The problem for pension funds is QE's design, not its rationale. The BOE's gilt purchases drive up prices and push yields down, a particular problem now that the scale of the BOE's bond buying is forcing it to buy longer-dated gilts of over 25 years in maturity, popular with pension funds. While quantitative easing boosts the value of pension assets, it lowers investment returns and increases estimates of future liabilities. Because typical defined-benefit plans are only 70% funded and face liabilities several years longer than their assets, that leads to wider deficits.

The BOE had hoped the bond-buying program would encourage pension funds to sell gilts and buy stocks and corporate bonds. Instead, many pension plans are doing the opposite: derisking and buying more gilts in the hope of closing shortfalls sooner. That isn't only exacerbating deficits but accelerating a move out of stocks, reducing a major source of long-term risk capital.

Some cash-strapped firms facing demands to plug QE-related deficits are petitioning the U.K. regulator to allow them more than 10 years to make up shortfalls. Another approach might be to discount liabilities at a higher rate than government or double-A corporate-bond yields. The Treasury uses a rate of 3% above consumer inflation for public-sector pensions.

But many trustees say the best response would be for the BOE to stop buying long-dated gilts and buy bank bonds instead. Not only would this ease bank funding difficulties, and thereby improve the supply of business loans, it would allow gilt yields to rise.

So far, the BOE has ruled this out, fearing credit risk and accusations it is subsidizing banks. But given the scale of the crisis, it may be time to take a less doctrinaire approach.

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203686204577116573609854972.html?mod=WSJ_Heard_LEFTSecondNews

Cần thận trọng khi phát hành chứng chỉ vàng

(TBKTSG) - Một nguồn lực rất lớn đang bị lãng phí, trong khi đó dự trữ ngoại hối của quốc gia lại hết sức mỏng manh là đánh giá chung của nhiều người khi nói về một lượng vàng lớn đang do người dân nắm giữ (ước tính khoảng 500 tấn). Vì vậy, phát hành chứng chỉ vàng là một giải pháp đã sớm được đề cập. Tuy nhiên, cần phải hết sức thận trọng nếu như sắp tới Ngân hàng Nhà nước (NHNN) muốn triển khai biện pháp này trong thực tế.

Chứng chỉ vàng là gì?

Chứng chỉ vàng là một loại giấy tờ có giá, được NHNN phát hành, để chứng nhận cho việc khách hàng gửi vàng tại NHNN. Chứng chỉ vàng có thể có hai loại: chứng chỉ ghi danh và chứng chỉ không ghi danh, được NHNN phát hành thông qua hệ thống các tổ chức tín dụng (TCTD).

Chứng chỉ không ghi danh không thể hiện tên người quản lý, sử dụng chứng chỉ và có thể mua bán, chuyển nhượng theo hình thức trao tay (như một phương tiện thanh toán). Còn chứng chỉ ghi danh có thể hiện tên của người quản lý, sử dụng chứng chỉ đó, trong trường hợp cần chuyển quyền quản lý, sở hữu chứng chỉ thì phải tiến hành đầy đủ các thủ tục theo quy định của pháp luật và của NHNN.

Nếu người đang quản lý, sở hữu chứng chỉ vàng muốn chuyển đổi thành vàng vật chất thì có thể thông qua hệ thống các TCTD để tiến hành thủ tục chuyển đổi.

Thực tế, hiện nay một số ngân hàng thương mại (NHTM) vẫn đang phát hành chứng chỉ vàng ghi danh, có trả lãi cho các khách hàng có nhu cầu gửi vàng tại ngân hàng. Tuy nhiên, chứng chỉ này không có vai trò như một phương tiện thanh toán. Khách hàng gửi vàng hiện nay tại các NHTM chủ yếu để hưởng lãi và để bảo đảm an toàn cho một tài sản có giá trị.

Cần thận trọng khi phát hành

Tháng 5-2012, các NHTM sẽ phải chấm dứt toàn bộ hoạt động huy động vàng. Việc NHNN ban hành quy định cấm các NHTM huy động vàng xuất phát từ hai nguyên nhân cơ bản. Thứ nhất, vì đây là hoạt động mang tính rủi ro cao do sự biến động giá vàng quá lớn; thứ hai, đây còn là một phần nguyên nhân của tình trạng bất ổn của thị trường vàng trong thời gian qua, trong đó có việc ảnh hưởng đến sự biến động của tỷ giá đô la Mỹ. Thế nhưng, việc NHNN phát hành chứng chỉ vàng có làm những bất ổn của thị trường vàng bớt đi hay chỉ là việc NHNN thay thế vai trò của các NHTM hiện nay mà thôi, khi nhu cầu mua và tích trữ vàng vẫn rất cao nhưng có thể chỉ một phần được chuyển thành chứng chỉ?

Việc cho phép chứng chỉ vàng không ghi danh được mua bán trao đổi theo hình thức trao tay đặt ra câu hỏi về vai trò của những chứng chỉ này trong hoạt động thanh toán. Có phải đây là một hình thức của tiền, thậm chí còn bảo đảm hơn so với tiền giấy hiện nay vì được bảo đảm bằng vàng. Chúng ta sẽ đối xử với những chứng chỉ vàng này ra sao và vai trò của tiền đồng sẽ bị ảnh hưởng như thế nào?

Phương tiện thanh toán có bảo đảm bằng vàng gợi nhớ lại chế độ bản vị vàng trước đây. Tuy nhiên, điểm khác là các chứng chỉ này được bảo đảm bằng số vàng đã có nên về lý thuyết khả năng chuyển đổi ra vàng vật chất là bảo đảm. Tuy nhiên, thực tế thời gian qua, yếu tố đầu cơ ở thị trường Việt Nam là khá lớn mà sự thất bại của chiến dịch bình ổn vàng của nhóm G1+7 (nhóm SJC và 7 ngân hàng bán vàng bình ổn) là một minh chứng rõ ràng. Do đó, không thể không tính đến yếu tố đầu cơ, thậm chí là tấn công thị trường vàng mà trong thời gian ngắn có thể NHNN sẽ không kịp phản ứng, hoặc phản ứng với một giá phải trả quá đắt!

Nhưng có lẽ trên hết, quyết định thành công của việc phát hành chứng chỉ vàng là việc người dân có đồng ý trao cho NHNN lượng vàng vật chất của mình để đổi lại việc nắm giữ các chứng chỉ. Điều này đòi hỏi một sự thay đổi rất lớn trong tư duy và truyền thống nắm giữ vàng của đại bộ phận người dân Việt Nam. Sự thay đổi có lẽ phần nhiều phụ thuộc vào niềm tin của người dân với Chính phủ, mà trước hết là từ việc giải quyết các bất ổn vĩ mô, sự thành công của quá trình tái cấu trúc nền kinh tế sắp tới, của việc chống tham nhũng, lãng phí và nhiều những vấn đề bức xúc khác.

Việc huy động lượng vàng trong dân cho mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế, tạo nguồn lực cho NHNN điều tiết thị trường và cân đối những mục tiêu vĩ mô là cần thiết. Thậm chí cần phải tiến hành trước khi chuyển vàng SJC thành vàng SBV (vàng của NHNN) để NHNN có đủ tiềm lực can thiệp trong và sau khi chuyển đổi. Tuy nhiên, những vấn đề liên quan đến tài sản cá nhân của người dân luôn là vấn đề nhạy cảm, cần phải cân nhắc hết mọi khả năng để chính sách đạt được hiệu quả mong muốn.

Có phải là cách tốt nhất? Trong bài trả lời phỏng vấn báo Đầu tư mới đây ông Cao Sĩ Kiêm, thành viên Hội đồng Tư vấn chính sách tiền tệ quốc gia, cho rằng cách huy động vàng trong dân tốt nhất là phát hành các chứng chỉ huy động vàng. Người dân có quyền sử dụng chứng chỉ vàng để cầm cố, mua bán, trao đổi trên thị trường và khi cần có thể rút vàng bất cứ lúc nào. Nhà nước sử dụng vốn vàng này để phục vụ cho doanh nghiệp sản xuất - kinh doanh. Khi cần thiết, Nhà nước sẽ dùng số vàng này để can thiệp thị trường. Tuy nhiên, để làm được điều này, trước hết cần thực hiện được ba vấn đề. Thứ nhất, chính sách phải rõ ràng, minh bạch. Thứ hai, dịch vụ, hệ thống huy động vàng phải tốt. Thứ ba, phải có mạng lưới thông tin, kiểm tra, giám sát thường xuyên. Chứng chỉ này nên do NHNN phát hành, thực hiện song song với việc ban hành các quy chế sử dụng chứng chỉ huy động vàng. Nên phân chứng chỉ vàng ra thành hai loại: loại phải trả lãi và loại không phải trả lãi, loại ghi danh và loại không ghi danh. Với loại chứng chỉ ghi danh, người dân dùng để gửi vào ngân hàng thì được hưởng lãi ở một mức nhất định. Còn loại chứng chỉ không ghi danh, người dân có thể mang ra trao đổi, mua bán trên thị trường... thì không được hưởng lãi. Source: http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/taichinh/nganhang/67952/Can-than-trong-khi-phat-hanh-chung-chi-vang.html

Siết nguồn cung - hy vọng mới cho bất động sản

Mặc dù đã có tín hiệu tích cực hơn nhưng một số chuyên gia dự đoán thị trường bất động sản năm 2012 sẽ còn tiếp tục khó khăn.

Mặc dù chỉ thị 2196/CT-TTg của Thủ tướng Chính phủ vừa ban hành không hứa hẹn sẽ nới lỏng tin dụng để cứu thị trường bất động sản như nhiều doanh nghiệp vẫn mong mỏi, nhưng việc Thủ tướng chỉ đạo phải siết chặt hơn việc cho vay đối với những dự án mới, sẽ giảm đáng kể nguồn cung, từ đó giúp các nhà đầu tư tiêu thụ hết số lượng căn hộ tồn đọng trên thị trường hiện nay.

Tác động nguồn cung

Trong chỉ thị, Thủ tướng Chính phủ yêu cầu Ngân hàng Nhà nước chỉ đạo các ngân hàng thương mại hạn chế cho vay bồi thường, giải phóng mặt bằng, các dự án khởi công mới và các dự án bất động sản cao cấp, và chỉ xem xét cho vay đối với các dự án bất động sản sẽ hoàn thành và có khả năng bán, thu hồi vốn đầu tư trong năm 2012.

Biện pháp này, một mặt giúp cho chủ đầu tư có dự án đang triển khai thêm nguồn lực để sớm đưa sản phẩm ra thị trường, nhưng mặt khác cũng thắt chặt nguồn cung mới đưa ra thị trường. Đây là cơ hội giúp các doanh nghiệp giải quyết hết số lượng căn hộ tồn đọng hiện nay.

Theo ước tính của các doanh nghiệp địa ốc, hiện cả nước có khoảng 200.000 căn hộ tại các dự án còn đang trong quá trình xây dựng, trong đó TPHCM có khoảng 50.000 căn. Nghiên cứu thị trường của công ty Cushman & Wakefield cũng cho thấy, chỉ tính riêng năm 2011 đã có khoảng 13.000 căn hộ tham gia thị trường TPHCM. Theo công ty này, nguồn cung hiện tại có thể đáp ứng nhu cầu của thị trường trong 3 năm tới.

Ông Lê Hoàng Châu, Chủ tịch Hiệp hội bất động sản TPHCM (HoREA), cho rằng mặc dù thị trường vẫn cần nhiều yếu tố để hồi phục, nhưng chỉ thị của Thủ tướng đã phát đi tín hiệu rất tích cực cho thị trường bất động sản.

Điều chỉnh thị trường

Chỉ thị của Thủ tướng cũng yêu cầu Bộ Tài chính nghiên cứu, đề xuất về thuế bất động sản nhằm hạn chế đầu cơ bất động sản, cũng như giám sát chặt chẽ việc cho các cá nhân vay kinh doanh bất động sản. Hiện chưa rõ Bộ Tài chính sẽ đề xuất như thế nào. Nhưng nếu Chính phủ quyết tâm muốn dẹp tình trạng đầu cơ, thì các công ty địa ốc sẽ phải điều chỉnh chiến lược kinh doanh, để hướng vào nhóm khách hàng có nhu cầu mua nhà để ở. Đó là những người có thu nhập trung bình và khá.

Lâu nay, họat động đầu tư phát triển nhà ở của các doanh nghiệp bất động sản ít theo nhu cầu thực của thị trường, chưa có quy hoạch, kế hoạch phát triển nhà ở, và tình trạng đầu tư tràn lan, tự phát hay các dự án chậm tiến độ vẫn khá phổ biến. Có thể nói vấn đề căng thẳng nguồn vốn của giới chủ đầu tư chỉ là một phần, vấn đề của thị trường căn hộ hiện nay là không có tính thanh khoản, cho dù nhiều doanh nghiệp địa ốc áp dụng đủ loại hình khuyến mãi để kích thích thị trường.

Ông Nguyễn Văn Đực, Phó giám đốc Công ty địa ốc Đất Lành, cho rằng thị trường bất động sản vẫn đang mất cân đối. Thiếu căn hộ có diện tích vừa và nhỏ, có giá cả phù hợp với sức mua của đa số người có nhu cầu. Với diện tích căn hộ quá lớn, cho dù có giảm giá thì nhiều người vẫn không thể tiếp mua được vì giá trị căn nhà vượt quá khả năng chi trả của họ.

Dưới góc độ tư vấn và tiếp thị các dự án căn hộ, ông Nguyễn Nguyên Thái, Phó giám đốc Công ty CB Richard Ellis Vietnam, cho rằng trong nhiều năm qua, vì nhiều lý do, nhiều doanh nghiệp thường chỉ làm hai công đoạn là tìm đất đề phát triển nhà và sau đó nỗ lực để tiếp thị, bán.

“Chính vì vậy rất nhiều sản phẩm không đáp ứng được nhu cầu của khách hàng”, ông Thái nói. Thay vì phải nghiên cứu tìm hiểu kỹ nhu cầu trước khi quyết định đầu tư phát triển dự án nhà ở, nhiều chủ đầu tư chỉ quan tâm đến tính hoành tráng của dự án mà quên đi tính hiệu quả của sản phẩm.

Như vậy, việc chuẩn bị sắc thuế chống đầu cơ, hạn chế nhà ở phân khúc cao cấp, đồng thời mở van tín dụng cho các dự án phát triển nhà ở nhắm vào đối tượng thu nhập thấp và các đối tượng có nhu cầu thực sự vay mua nhà để ở, nhiều người hy vọng thị trường căn hộ sắp tới sẽ đi theo hướng điều tiết của Nhà nước là hướng đến người mua để ở nhiều hơn.

Ông Đặng Đức Thành, Tổng giám đốc Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư Căn Nhà Mơ Ước, cũng đồng quan điểm với một số doanh nghiệp phát triển địa ốc, cho rằng việc tiếp tục siết tín dụng trong phân khúc cao cấp sẽ khuyến khích các dự án cần điều chỉnh cơ cấu, loại hình nhà ở cho phù hợp với nhu cầu của thị trường, hạn chế bớt nguồn cung căn hộ cao cấp trong tương lai, qua đó sẽ tạo thanh khoản cho thị trường bất động sản. Đây là lúc thị trường tự điều chỉnh để phát triển bền vững hơn, và các nhà đầu tư chuyên nghiệp có tiềm lực tài chính mới có khả năng tham gia thị trường.

Khôi phục niềm tin

Ông Trần Minh Hoàng, Chủ tịch HĐQT Công ty Vinaland, nhận xét thị trường hiện nay là thị trường phát mãi, khi các ngân hàng đang tìm cách bán tài sản thế chấp để thu hồi vốn. Nhiều doanh nghiệp địa ốc đang phải đối mặt với thực tế là sản phẩm không bán được, trong khi vẫn phải trả lãi vay ngân hàng và chịu áp lực phải thực hiện dự án để giao nhà cho đúng tiến độ đã cam kết với khách hàng.

Không ít dự án lâm vào cảnh tiến thoái lưỡng nan, khi người mua nhà không tiếp cận được vốn vay, nên ngưng góp vốn vào dự án bên cạnh nguồn vốn của chủ đầu tư và vốn vay của ngân hàng. Nhiều khách hàng không đóng tiền vào dự án, vì không biết liệu chủ đầu tư có làm tiếp dự án hay sẽ phá sản, và nếu dự án bị ngân hàng phát mãi sẽ trắng tay.

Ông Hoàng cho rằng, áp lực tài chính quá lớn đang buộc nhiều chủ đầu tư giảm giá bán căn hộ, tuy nhiên nếu không có được nguồn vốn từ ngân hàng thì chủ đầu tư có giảm giá bán người ta cũng không mua vì không có tiền, và rào cản lớn hiện nay là lãi suất cho vay vẫn còn quá cao. Do vậy, câu chuyện hiện nay không nằm ở chỗ tháo gỡ cho doanh nghiệp địa ốc mà là hỗ trợ cho người mua thông qua việc hạ lãi suất.

Một số chuyên gia dự báo lãi suất sẽ giảm trong năm tới, nhưng giảm xuống bao nhiêu thì vẫn còn phải chờ. Theo ông Lê Hoàng Châu, thị trường bât động sản phát triển ổn định và bền vững hơn khi lãi suất theo lộ trình giảm xuống mưc 15 -16% và duy trì ở khoảng 11 – 12%/năm như trước đây.

Mặc dù đã có tín hiệu tích cực hơn nhưng một số chuyên gia dự đoán thị trường bất động sản năm 2012 sẽ còn tiếp tục khó khăn, và trường hợp lãi suất được điều chỉnh giảm thì cũng phải đến cuối năm thị trường mới có thể khởi sắc. Thị trường bất động sản đã giảm giá 30% năm nay, và dự báo sẽ mất giá thêm 20% nữa khi xuống đáy vào năm 2012, và cũng sẽ phải mất hơn hai năm tới để hồi phục.

Source: http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/dothi/nhadat/67799/Siet-nguon-cung---hy-vong-moi-cho-bat-dong-san.html

Japanese firms shop abroad: Armed with a strong yen

MR TICKLE and Mr Bump are leaping into bed with Hello Kitty. Sanrio, the owner of the bow-adorned feline, said on December 6th that it had acquired the “Mr Men” franchise from Chorion of Britain. The deal, for an estimated ¥3 billion ($40m), brings the Japanese design and licensing firm 86 playful characters who have delighted toddlers in 30 countries and shifted 100m books.

Corporate Japan is on an overseas shopping spree. Japanese firms spent a record $80 billion on some 620 foreign companies in 2011, according to Dealogic, a firm that measures such things (see chart), exceeding the previous record of 466 deals worth $75 billion in 2008. When Japan Inc went shopping abroad in the 1980s, it was a sign of strength. Japanese companies were spreading their wings because they were growing. This time, it is a symptom of weakness.

The past year in Japan has been wretched. An earthquake and tsunami in March wrecked factories and disrupted supply chains, creating shortages of all sorts of crucial components. Radiation fears hurt exports. A strong yen walloped profits. Floods in Thailand interrupted the distribution of electronics and car parts. Corporate-governance scandals cast a black cloud over blue suits nationwide.

The Japanese population is ageing and shrinking. The economy is sluggish. Consumption is lacklustre. So Japanese firms find it nearly impossible to expand domestically. At the same time, thanks to crises elsewhere in the rich world, the yen is extraordinarily strong. It has appreciated by 45% against the dollar in the past four years. And having learned thrift during their own banking crisis a decade ago, Japanese firms are flush: big listed companies are sitting on a cash pile of ¥60 trillion.

With all this buying power and few opportunities at home, it is hardly surprising that Japanese firms are snapping up foreign companies, especially in fast-growing emerging economies. “Unless we grow we’re not able to stay alive simply by staying in Japan,” explains Tadashi Yanai, the boss of Uniqlo’s Fast Retailing, a big clothing firm. The time is ripe for foreign deals, he chirps. The economic crises in America and Europe have pummelled share prices, making companies cheaper to acquire.

Back in the 1980s Japanese firms hunted trophies such as golf courses and film studios. Now they are taking a more pragmatic approach, buying solid firms in fast-growing markets and filling gaps in their product lines.

For example, Kirin, a big Japanese brewer, is acquiring a majority stake in Schincariol, a Brazilian one, for $2.6 billion. The Japanese beer market is flat; Brazil’s is growing by 10% a year. The biggest deal of the year was when Takeda, a Japanese drug firm, bought Nycomed, a Swiss one, for ¥1 trillion. Almost 40% of Nycomed’s sales are in emerging markets.

Japanese trading houses are hungrily buying energy projects, especially those involving shale gas. This year they spent $10 billion, up from less than $3 billion in 2010. The pace of such deals accelerated after Japanese nuclear-power plants were suspended following the nuclear accident at Fukushima in March, which made many Japanese worry about their energy supply. Toshiba spent $1.6 billion on Landis+Gyr, which makes “smart” electricity meters for homes. Sony paid $8.4 billion for control of its cellphone venture, Sony Ericsson, a stake in the record label EMI and other stuff.

This time really is different

In the past, Japanese firms would parachute in bosses from Tokyo to run the show. Many were monocultural and mediocre. Now, Japanese firms wisely rely on local talent. Many of the new generation of Japanese executives have lived and worked abroad, notes Shinsuke Tsunoda, the head of mergers and acquisitions in Japan at Nomura, a Japanese securities house. This means they are more comfortable doing deals with foreigners, and they are better at integrating the foreign firms they buy with their new Japanese owners.

The foreign shopping spree is internationalising Japanese industry by the back door. Japan Inc is acting like a massive sovereign-wealth fund, placing its money abroad to earn investment income at home (and help Japan maintain a current-account surplus).

When old people retire, they tend to live off their savings. They supply capital to younger, sprightlier, cash-strapped folk, who put it to work and pay dividends or interest to the retirees. That is, roughly speaking, what Asia’s ageing archipelago is starting to do.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541848

Avon boots: out its boss Andrea’s adieu

“YOU have got to go home tonight, Friday evening, and you have got to fire yourself,” a management coach once told Andrea Jung, the boss of Avon, an American beauty firm. The idea was for her to come back to work the following Monday as if starting her job anew. Alas, this brilliant tip was not enough. As Avon’s share price has wilted like mascara under a sunlamp, Ms Jung is being pushed out for real. On December 13th the firm announced that she will be replaced as chief executive.

The makeover will be gradual. Ms Jung, who has run Avon since 1999, will stay on as chairman and help the board find a new boss. It will be a tough job for anyone. Avon is the world’s biggest direct-seller: an army of cheery salesfolk hawk its products door-to-door. The 125-year-old New York-based company has an annual revenue of over $10 billion and operations in more than 100 countries. But it has stumbled badly of late. Its share price has fallen by 45% this year (see chart).

Ms Jung had a glossy start at Avon, presiding over six consecutive years of double-digit growth. Yet she failed to use these fat years to invest in the business. By 2005 the firm was looking blemished. Sales declined in major markets. The share price dropped. Ms Jung laid off 25% of senior staff and cut costs everywhere except for advertising and distribution.

Avon never really recovered. In March 2009 Ms Jung launched the biggest hiring drive in the company’s history and nearly doubled the marketing budget. She saw in the global economic crisis a chance to overtake Avon’s rivals. It didn’t work.

Moreover, the company has spent more than $150m on an internal investigation of alleged corruption among sales representatives in China and Latin America. Several have been dismissed. America’s Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating, too. If Avon is found guilty of anything, the penalties could be steep.

Some problems are beyond Avon’s control. Brazil, a big market, is slowing down. Europe, which accounts for 28% of Avon’s sales, is in crisis: it’s hard to put lipstick on the PIGS. Avon is doing badly at home in America, too. Shoppers are feeling Grinchy about pennies. And the non-beauty products (such as fashion accessories) that account for a hefty third of Avon’s sales in America have lower margins than cosmetics. (In other countries non-beauty stuff represents only about 10% of Avon’s sales.)

Other problems are self-inflicted. Avon made a mess of its new IT system in Brazil. Its working capital is chewing up a third of its gross cashflow, mainly due to poor inventory management. If Avon reduced its working capital, it would have less trouble paying dividends, says Connie Maneaty of BMO Capital in New York. It would also have more cash for acquisitions in fast-growing markets such as Vietnam or India.

Many will be sorry to see Ms Jung tossed overboard. As the Princeton-educated daughter of Chinese immigrants, she embodied the American dream. She was also a role model for women, in particular Avon’s 6.5m sales representatives, most of whom are female. One reason why Avon wants her to stay as chairman is that she is popular with the salesforce.

But Avon is ailing and needs an overhaul. A new boss will be a good start, says Ali Dibadj of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm. The list of possible candidates includes Ed Shirley, vice chairman of the beauty and grooming unit at Procter & Gamble, an American consumer-goods giant, and Elizabeth Smith, who was in line to succeed Ms Jung at Avon before leaving the company to take over as boss of OSI Restaurant, a restaurant chain. Whoever gets the job, the changes required will be more than cosmetic.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541854

Giới đầu tư tài chính đang thao túng?

(TBKTSG) - Năm 2011 thị trường gạo có nhiều biến động, đặc biệt là giá gạo nguyên liệu. Nhiều ý kiến trong giới kinh doanh gạo cho rằng giá gạo liên tục tăng từ đầu năm - kể cả thời điểm chính vụ - là do có bàn tay của giới đầu tư tài chính. Liệu có đúng như vậy?

Để thâm nhập ngành gạo, giới đầu tư tài chính có thể thành lập các công ty mới hoặc đầu tư vào các công ty/tác nhân hiện tại để nâng cấp hoạt động kinh doanh. Đó có thể là các công ty xuất khẩu hoặc doanh nghiệp cung ứng. Có lập luận cho rằng, nguồn vốn kinh doanh chảy vào dồi dào nhưng nguồn cung hàng hoá không có nhiều thay đổi sẽ làm cho sức mua tăng, đẩy giá lên cao.

Cách lập luận như trên chưa đủ sức thuyết phục bởi năm 2011 lượng xuất khẩu tăng rất mạnh nên tạo ra áp lực mua nguyên liệu nhiều hơn mọi khi. Hơn nữa, trong một thị trường có nhiều kỳ vọng về giá đi lên thì xu hướng đầu cơ xảy ra ở tất cả các khâu và với mọi tác nhân, nên mặc dù có thể có sự huy động nguồn lực vào kinh doanh gạo nhưng chưa thể khẳng định đó là dòng tiền đầu tư bài bản. Giới đầu tư tài chính thường bơm vốn thông qua các pháp nhân hoặc đầu tư vào doanh nghiệp sẵn có, nhưng vì đa số các doanh nghiệp kinh doanh gạo chưa lên sàn chứng khoán nên con số đó không nhiều.

Trong khi đó, đối với thương lái, nhiều khả năng nguồn vốn huy động chủ yếu là kênh “phi chính thống” chứ không phải là đầu tư của giới tài chính.

Ngoài ra, còn một khâu nữa trong chuỗi giá trị lúa gạo có thể xem xét liệu giới đầu tư tài chính đã tham gia mạnh chưa đó là xuất khẩu. Số liệu kim ngạch xuất khẩu của các doanh nghiệp hàng đầu trong năm 2010 và tám tháng đầu năm 2011 cho thấy, trong danh sách 15 doanh nghiệp hàng đầu trong hai năm gần đây không có nhiều tên tuổi “mới hoàn toàn”.

Một phân tích ở khía cạnh khác là xem xét tỷ trọng doanh nghiệp hàng đầu có thay đổi trong tổng số các doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu hay không. Và nếu các doanh nghiệp cỡ trung bình ngày càng xuất khẩu nhiều hơn, đó có thể là giả thiết giới đầu tư đã bơm vốn vào các doanh nghiệp này?

Việt Nam có trên 200 doanh nghiệp xuất khẩu gạo và trước đây thị phần chủ yếu thuộc về hai tổng công ty VNF1, VNF2. Tỷ trọng của hai doanh nghiệp này cũng như 10 doanh nghiệp hàng đầu đã chiếm trên 60% kim ngạch xuất khẩu. Số liệu thống kê cho thấy hiện nay các doanh nghiệp quen thuộc vẫn đứng vững trong top 10, top 15 hoặc top 20..., chứng tỏ chưa có một tên tuổi mới nào xuất hiện.

Giả sử có giới đầu tư tài chính nhảy vào thì “miếng bánh” sẽ được chia nhỏ hơn, tức tỷ trọng xuất khẩu của nhóm doanh nghiệp nói trên sẽ giảm xuống trong tổng lượng xuất khẩu. Tuy nhiên, số liệu so sánh tám tháng đầu năm 2011 và cả năm 2010 cho thấy các tỷ trọng của top 10, 15, 20... trong tổng xuất khẩu không có sự dịch chuyển nào đáng kể. Như vậy, có thể khẳng định ít nhất cho đến thời điểm hiện tại, giới đầu tư tài chính vẫn chưa thao túng được khâu xuất khẩu gạo, hoặc mức đầu tư chưa đủ lớn để xoay chuyển tình hình.

Tuy nhiên, với những doanh nghiệp mới được cấp phép theo Nghị định 109 thì đó là tín hiệu cho thấy đầu tư ngoài ngành đã bắt đầu chảy vào ngành xuất khẩu gạo. Chắc hẳn đang có những dự án đầu tư chế biến xuất khẩu gạo được trình lên các cấp có thẩm quyền cũng như kêu gọi vốn đầu tư trong nước và quốc tế để triển khai. Những năm tới, cuộc chơi sẽ thay đổi theo hướng cạnh tranh ngày càng khốc liệt hơn.

Source: http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/kinhdoanh/xuatnhapkhau/67374/Giói-dàu-tu-tài-chính-dang-thao-túng?.html

Carmakers: Revenge of the petrolheads

THE Chevrolet Volt, a compact, petrol-electric hybrid launched by GM a year ago, was already selling poorly before it emerged last month that its batteries had caught fire in crash tests. GM is likely to fall several thousand short of its target of selling 10,000 Volts this year. Despite subsidies, electric cars and hybrids (which can run off batteries or a generator powered by an engine) are shifting sluggishly.

The Volt’s battery problem should be fairly easy to fix. But the profusion of hybrid and all-electric cars now hitting the roads faces a far bigger challenge. Petrol- and diesel-engined vehicles are becoming much more fuel-efficient. That means motorists will remain reluctant to pay a fat premium for a green car.

Between now and 2025 regulators in Europe, America and elsewhere plan to impose ever greater curbs on cars’ emissions of carbon dioxide (or higher fuel efficiency, which has much the same effect). This is forcing carmakers to invest both in developing electrics and hybrids and in making the conventional engine cleaner.

Ricardo, an engineering consultancy, and Sanford C. Bernstein, an investment bank, have crunched a bunch of numbers on the technology race between conventional and green vehicles. They conclude that petrol and diesel cars will keep closing the emissions gap (see chart), while hybrids and, especially, electrics, will be more expensive to own for years to come. The internal-combustion engine will still be king of the road in the early 2020s, when only a fifth of cars sold in Europe will be hybrid or electric.

America’s regulators are only now getting tough on fuel efficiency, so its cars are guzzling as much petrol as they did 20 years ago. However, in Europe, which got strict sooner and where fuel is heavily taxed, petrol and diesel vehicles have become much cleaner. The average new car sold in Britain now does 52.5 miles per gallon, up from 40.6mpg ten years ago. Even so, says Neville Jackson of Ricardo, there remains much scope for improvement: petrol and diesel cars still typically use less than a fifth of the energy stored in their fuel to turn the wheels. Plenty more miles can be squeezed out of each gallon. It is simply a matter of cost.

To meet a series of deadlines to cut emissions, carmakers are putting into their cheaper models all sorts of gear hitherto mostly seen on pricey high-performance cars: turbochargers and superchargers (which mean the engine can be smaller and more fuel-efficient), fancy fuel-injection systems and valve trains; grilles with variable aerodynamics, and so on.

Next year Ford will offer a new Focus compact car in Europe, with a one-litre, three-cylinder engine that performs as well as the 1.6 litre, four-cylinder engine it replaces, yet uses about 20% less fuel. Joe Bakaj, an engineer at Ford, says that even American buyers of the company’s F-150 pickups, who would normally scoff at anything with less than a V8 engine, are switching to a new V6 version that performs at least as well but drinks less fuel.

The analysis by Ricardo and Bernstein shows the carmakers are in a tight spot: given motorists’ aversion to the cost of electrics and hybrids, the quickest route towards meeting the deadlines for cutting emissions is to invest heavily in cleaning up their petrol and diesel cars. But to squeak past the finishing line they will still need a small proportion of hybrids and electrics. So they will have to keep spending on designing these, without their reaching a level of sales that will make them profitable.

Stefanie Lang of Bernstein says this will force carmakers to work together on developing new technology: Toyota, for example, has agreed to work with Ford on hybrid sport-utility vehicles and with BMW on both electric batteries and diesel engines. Carmakers are also dabbling in battery leasing (Renault) and car-sharing (Daimler) as they seek ways to persuade motorists that electric cars are affordable.

Hybrids and electrics will be a drag on carmakers’ profits for years. But they are a useful marketing tool. GM has found that adding the hybrid Volt (pictured) to its model range is enticing into its showrooms the sort of young urban buyers who normally ignore Detroit-made cars. Many balk at the Volt’s $32,000 price (after a generous government subsidy), but some end up driving away in a petrol-engined car like the Cruze, costing around half as much.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541443

Private equity: One careful owner?

DISCOUNTED prices, outdated models and a glut of inventory. Customers can tell plenty about the state of the auto industry while kicking tyres at a used-car dealership. The same is true for the second-hand market for private-equity stakes. What used to be a tiny part of the industry has flourished (see chart).

“Secondary” stakes change hands when investors, who typically agree to lock up their money for a decade, decide to sell early. Triago, a firm that arranges secondary transactions, reckons that deals worth $25 billion will take place in 2011, up by 25% from last year’s record.

Banks and insurers are largely responsible, since they need to sell their investments in private equity and free capital to comply with an onslaught of new regulations, such as Basel 3 and Solvency II in Europe, and the Volcker rule in America. Cash-strapped European banks are also eager to peddle their private-equity investments. In August HSH Nordbank, a German bank, sold a €620m ($1 billion) portfolio that included stakes in well-known firms such as Carlyle and KKR.

A flurry of secondary activity has been predicted for years. But until recently only the most desperate investors wanted to offload their stakes at rock-bottom prices. Transactions have picked up because sellers can now get better prices. Neil Campbell of Tullett Prebon, an interdealer broker, says that investors today can expect around 95 cents on the dollar for many of their stakes, compared with only 60 cents in 2009. Some assets have doubled in price in the past year.

Prices have risen because of a glut of capital that firms specialising in the secondary market, such as Coller Capital and Harbourvest, have raised to take advantage of the opportunity to buy. These firms aren’t the only ones shopping. Some pensions and funds of funds have begun to use the secondary market to invest in promising funds or regions.

Some say that the secondary market’s growth shows that institutional investors are becoming more familiar with private equity as an asset class—and are becoming more aware of its attractions. It helps that secondaries can be bought and sold more easily than ever before. But transactions in them are still more arduous to complete, not to mention more opaque, than other investments. Unlike face-to-face bargaining over a dodgy motor, deals are negotiated through an intermediary. Attempts to launch exchanges and derivative products, which would make for more transparent pricing, have not taken off.

Mathieu Dréan of Triago predicts that by 2015 the annual tally will be $75 billion-worth of secondary transactions annually. The struggles of the private-equity industry will partly fuel this growth. Buy-out firms bought too many companies at top prices. They must now wait until the economy improves to sell or float them and return money to impatient investors. Private-equity firms are now holding on to companies for five years on average, compared with three-and-a-half years in 2007. Some investors don’t want to wait that long to pocket returns. They are turning to the secondary market to hand in the keys for their old model and grab what cash they can.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541430

Not sharing: The coming shortage of equity investors

THE world has accumulated too much debt. Issuing more equity would reduce risk, particularly in the banking sector, and create the seed capital for new industries to emerge. But global investors may be losing their appetite for shares. That is the conclusion of a new report* by the McKinsey Global Institute, which argues that by 2020 a $12.3 trillion gap will have emerged between the amount of equity that needs to be supplied and the likely level of demand.

The problem is that investors in the developed world are shifting from equities into other assets, thanks to demographic changes, regulatory pressures and the disappointing returns suffered over the past ten years. Pension funds are maturing, with more of their members in retirement and fewer in work, so bonds are a more appropriate investment than equities. Insurance companies have shed equities in the face of regulations such as the European Union’s Solvency II regime; they could sell as much as $150 billion of shares over the next five years.

Meanwhile, the financial assets of developing-world investors are growing fast, but such investors tend to have a very small exposure to stockmarkets. Indians have only 8% of their wealth in equities. As they get richer, investors in the developing world will diversify their portfolios. But McKinsey estimates they would have to raise their equity allocations to the 42% owned by American households to close the gap completely.

Developing-world investors have understandable reasons for caution. Companies in emerging markets are often not as transparent as those in the developed world, nor do they have a record of treating minority shareholders well. Institutional investors—mutual funds, insurance companies, pension schemes—are not as well established in developing countries as they are in Europe and America.

Despite the subdued level of demand, companies will still need to issue equity, either to strengthen their balance sheets or to support their expansion. The banks will need to raise equity to meet the Basel rules. Meanwhile, the faster growth rate of developing countries means that more companies are likely to float on their domestic markets; more than half of all new issues in 2010, by volume and by value, were in emerging markets. Indeed, McKinsey reckons the net excess of supply over demand for equities in emerging markets will be some $7 trillion.

Now, of course, this gap is entirely notional. The actual level of equity supply and demand will exactly balance out. But if desired supply exceeds desired demand one of two things can happen. Share prices will fall, so that expected returns rise and investors become willing to buy shares again. This might happen if dividend yields on shares exceed government-bond yields for an extended period, as was the case in the first half of the 20th century.

It is also possible that governments can encourage greater demand for equities. In the developing world, that would require better protection for the small investor. In the developed world, tax-code reform is the big issue. Corporate interest payments are tax-deductible in most countries while dividends are not. But that would be a difficult reform to pull off. Given the state of public finances, governments are unlikely to be handing out new tax breaks. And removing the tax-deductibility of interest, even if it was accompanied by a lowering of the overall corporate-tax rate, would endanger the health of highly indebted companies.

The alternative possibility is that firms will eschew issuing equity and raise capital in the form of debt instead. There may well be an appetite for such paper, since government bond yields are so low (at least, in the likes of America, Britain and Germany) that investors will be attracted to the higher income offered by corporate bonds. But the risks ought to be obvious after the past few years. A highly geared economy is likely to suffer from bigger booms and bigger busts.

Equity is a very useful form of long-term capital for the corporate sector, and also offers a way for private investors to participate in the long-term growth of the economy. But in Europe and America, companies have been retiring equities through share buy-backs, while the volume of initial public offerings has dropped considerably from the peak years of 2000 and 2007. If the developed world is to recover its mojo, equity issuance has to come back into fashion.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541424?fsrc=rss

Advertising: Four more years

“MAURICE is immortal,” says the chief executive of a French multinational. When told of his friend’s comment, Maurice Lévy, boss of Publicis, one of the world’s biggest advertising firms, is visibly flattered. But he demurs. “When you think you are immortal, you will make the biggest errors of your life,” he says. “I know that if I fail to find the right successor, my entire career will be a failure.”

Mr Lévy’s longevity at the top is unusual in a business known for short attention spans. But Publicis is unusual, too. Since the Paris-based firm was founded by Marcel Bleustein-Blanchet in 1926, it has had only two bosses: the founder and Mr Lévy, who took over in 1987. Mr Lévy, who turns 70 in February, had planned to retire at the end of this year, but the board recently raised the age limit for its members to 75. On November 29th Publicis said that all of them had been reappointed for four years.

The board wants him to stay, says Mr Lévy, because the economic crisis could last, so they want a safe pair of hands at the top. He sees lots of uncertainty next year, though he does not think that companies will cut back advertising spending as sharply as they did after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Their response to the dire state of the economy will vary from one industry and country to the next. In Europe, not surprisingly, the outlook is bleaker the farther south you go.

Yet the forecast for global ad spending in the next few years released on December 5th by ZenithOptimedia, an agency owned by Publicis, is fairly rosy. It says spending will rise by 4.7% in 2012 to $486 billion, having gone up by 3.5% this year. A good chunk of next year’s increase is due to events that come around every four years: a presidential election in America, the summer Olympics and the European football championship. The forecast for the next two years, though, is even better: 5.2% growth in 2013 and 5.8% in 2014 (see chart.

The internet and emerging economies are the two fastest-growing areas in the ad world. Mr Lévy is betting big on both. Five years ago he bought Digitas, an internet-ad agency, for $1.3 billion. Some thought that pricey. Undeterred, Mr Lévy bought Razorfish, an American digital agency, for $530m in 2009, and Rosetta, another, for $575m in May this year. Today internet advertising accounts for more than 30% of the revenue of Publicis, against around 20% for WPP, its British rival.

In China, by far the biggest advertising market among emerging economies, Publicis is pushing hard, taking over local agencies. Mr Lévy admits that WPP entered sooner and is bigger. (WPP’s approach in emerging economies is different too, with more weight on public relations and market research.) Success in China may determine who takes over from Mr Lévy. The company has put Jean-Yves Naouri, the chief operating officer, in charge there. Insiders say that if Mr Naouri doubles the size of Publicis in China, as planned, from €200m ($265m) in 2010 to €400m by 2012, he will make it to the top.

Whoever succeeds Mr Lévy will have big shoes to fill. Mr Lévy transformed Publicis from a French also-ran at the end of the 1990s into the world’s number three, behind WPP and Omnicom, an American firm. He did this through the conquest of other agencies on a Napoleonic scale—most notably the takeover of Britain’s Saatchi & Saatchi and America’s Bcom3, which came with a coveted collection of clients. “They bought quality companies for a full price,” says Christophe Cherblanc, a media analyst at Société Générale, a French bank.

Mr Lévy is not planning another transformative takeover in the near future. Publicis is regularly rumoured to be sniffing around Interpublic, a big American ad firm, Aegis, a British group, and even Ipsos, a French market researcher. But that would mean taking on more debt, and Mr Lévy says that this is not a good time to borrow money. And he will not want to hand over a highly indebted company to his successor—whenever that happens.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541412

Năm 2012, các quỹ ngoại có khả năng thoái vốn khoảng 25.000 tỷ đồng

Một số quỹ đã bắt đầu bán ra danh mục từ đầu năm nay. Ba tuần tại Mỹ, TGĐ một CTCK cho biết ông không nhận được một sự hứa hẹn nào đầu tư vào Việt Nam năm tới.

“Nợ xấu trên tổng dư nợ của ngân hàng đã tăng từ 2,5% cuối năm 2010 lên 3,5% vào tháng 9-2011. Nợ xấu sẽ tiếp tục tăng và sẽ đạt đỉnh vào giữa năm 2012. Chúng tôi kỳ vọng nợ xấu không làm tan vỡ hệ thống ngân hàng, mà ngược lại sẽ giúp đẩy nhanh quá trình củng cố và cải cách các tổ chức tín dụng. Kỳ vọng này dựa trên cơ sở phần lớn nợ của ngân hàng Việt Nam đều có tài sản thế chấp và tài sản ngầm tương đương hơn 70% GDP” - đó là một trong những nhận định của Dragon Capital trong bản tin Vietnam October Update dành cho nhà đầu tư nước ngoài.

Dragon Capital đã không thể ngờ rằng ngay sau bản tin tháng 10-2011, từ đầu tháng 11 thị trường bất động sản bắt đầu “rùng mình” với hàng loạt dự án căn hộ, biệt thự giảm giá mạnh trong một nỗ lực tìm đầu ra nhằm thu hồi vốn trả nợ ngân hàng của các chủ dự án đầu tư.

Ngay lập tức, giá cổ phiếu bất động sản niêm yết lao dốc không phanh. Các cổ phiếu chiếm tỷ trọng lớn trong danh mục đầu tư của Vietnam Property Fund; Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited (Veil); Vietnam Growth Fund do Dragon Capital quản lý như HAG, SJS, SCR, BCI, DIG… bị bán tháo.

Sau bất động sản, đến lượt cổ phiếu ngân hàng. Bất chấp hiệu quả kinh doanh và sự tăng trưởng lợi nhuận tương đối tốt so với năm ngoái, cổ phiếu STG, VCB, STB luôn đối mặt với nguồn cung bán ra mạnh nhiều phiên. Nhà đầu tư nước ngoài, đặc biệt các quỹ ETFs, là người bán ròng bền bỉ, nhẫn nại hai loại cổ phiếu nói trên.

Vì sao họ bán?

Những năm trước, có nhiều thời điểm nhà đầu tư nước ngoài cũng bán ròng cổ phiếu, nhưng khi đó có thể nhận ra chiến lược “bán rẻ để mua lại rẻ hơn”. Vì vậy, khi thị trường phục hồi, lực cầu của khối ngoại đã tạo điều kiện cho VN-Index có những bước nhảy về phía 600 điểm.

Nay thì không, họ bán và bán luôn, hầu như không có dấu hiệu nào chứng tỏ họ sẽ trở lại. Trong các báo cáo dành cho nhà đầu tư ở bên ngoài Việt Nam, một số tổ chức tài chính nhận định chứng khoán Việt Nam chưa đến đáy.

Hai điểm nhấn được họ liệt kê để chứng tỏ đáy chưa thể gần là sự ổn định của giá trị đồng nội tệ sẽ còn chịu nhiều thử thách và lạm phát trong năm tới chưa thể rơi về mức một con số.

Bên cạnh đó, phần lớn các quỹ ngoại đang chịu sức ép đóng quỹ vào năm sau. Có rất ít khả năng các nhà đầu tư gia hạn cho các quỹ hoạt động. Thống kê chưa đầy đủ chỉ ra số tiền mà các quỹ ngoại phải thoái vốn năm 2012 lên tới 25.000 tỉ đồng. Đây là dựa vào giá trị tài sản ròng NAV mà các quỹ đang nắm giữ, chứ không dựa trên số vốn đầu tư ban đầu. Phần lớn các quỹ đều giải ngân vào hai năm 2006-2007.

So với mặt bằng giá cổ phiếu hiện tại, NAV của họ chỉ còn bằng một nửa, thậm chí một phần ba giá trị đầu tư ban đầu. Chẳng hạn một trong những quỹ lớn hiện nay là DWS Vietnam Fund có NAV 198 triệu đô la Mỹ vào ngày 30-11-2011 so với vốn đầu tư ban đầu 500 triệu đô la Mỹ cách đây năm năm (nguồn: Edmond de Rothschils Securities Limited).

Để có thể thoái hết số vốn trên, cần có sự chuẩn bị. Một số quỹ đã bắt đầu bán ra danh mục từ đầu năm nay. Trong 12 tháng qua, VN-Index giảm 18,6% - mức giảm không lớn nhờ sự neo giá hoặc tăng giá của những cổ phiếu có vốn hóa lớn như MSN, BVH, VIC, VPL, nhưng nhiều cổ phiếu blue-chips đã mất giá 50-70%. Hnx cùng thời gian giảm 44,2%.

Điều đáng nói là thanh khoản cả hai sàn chỉ còn bằng một phần tư so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Có ngày giá trị khớp lệnh của sàn TPHCM chừng 10-15 triệu đô la Mỹ. Thanh khoản như thế sẽ khiến quá trình thoái vốn của khối ngoại kéo dài lê thê và mệt mỏi.

Trong khi đó dòng vốn gián tiếp nước ngoài chảy vào chứng khoán Việt Nam gần như dừng hẳn. Không kể lượng vốn đầu tư có chủ định lâu dài vào một số trường hợp đặc biệt như mua cổ phần của Masan Comsumer, Vinamilk (khi 3% room nước ngoài còn lại được lấp đầy), hay các đợt phát hành trái phiếu quốc tế của HAG, các quỹ không huy động thêm được đồng vốn nào trong hai năm qua.

Mới đây VinaCapital hoặc Dragon Capital công bố khả năng có thể gọi thêm khoảng 100-150 triệu đô la Mỹ cho quỹ tư nhân (private equity), nhưng có hai điểm cần chú ý. Thứ nhất, đó mới chỉ là khả năng giả định. Từ nay đến khi các quỹ có tiền trong tay là khoảng thời gian 6-12 tháng.

Thứ hai các quỹ này nhiều khả năng giải ngân vào thị trường cận biên đang lên là Lào, Campuchia, nơi sàn chứng khoán vừa mở hoặc sắp mở với những quy định rất thông thoáng cho giới đầu tư ngoại.

Tái cơ cấu và dấu hỏi thời gian

Trong ba tuần ở Mỹ, tiếp xúc với hàng loạt quỹ đầu tư tại đây, tổng giám đốc một công ty chứng khoán cho biết ông không nhận được một sự hứa hẹn nào đầu tư vào Việt Nam năm tới. Ông buồn rầu nói: “Có quỹ họ nói thẳng có thể câu chuyện tăng trưởng của Việt Nam đang kết thúc nếu cách điều hành nền kinh tế chậm thay đổi”.

Thực ra giới đầu tư ngoại hiểu rất rõ xu hướng tái cơ cấu nền kinh tế Việt Nam và họ cũng biết rằng tái cơ cấu mới chỉ bắt đầu, còn con đường dài phía trước phải đi. Lạm phát rồi sẽ giảm (về một con số), tiền tệ sẽ được nới lỏng, tỷ giá sẽ ổn định, song câu hỏi là bao giờ? Hai, ba năm nữa hay lâu hơn? Trong thời gian chờ đợi, chứng khoán hẳn không có cơ hội để đi lên ngay lập tức. Vậy thì có nên rót vốn vào VN-Index bây giờ hay chờ đến khi chứng khoán phục hồi?

Rất có thể chờ đợi là lựa chọn khả thi thời điểm này!

Thay bằng giải ngân, tiền ngoại đang được rút ra khỏi chứng khoán niêm yết. Nhưng tiền ngoại cũng tỏ ra khôn khéo khi chọn đường chảy vào những doanh nghiệp ăn nên làm ra, có nền tảng quản trị lành mạnh.

Tập đoàn Masan vẫn có thể phát hành thêm 100-200 triệu đô la Mỹ cổ phiếu cho nước ngoài (và chuẩn bị phát hành vào đầu năm 2012). Tập đoàn tài chính số một Nhật Bản Mizohu đổ 500 triệu đô la Mỹ mua cổ phần Vietcombank. Một tập đoàn nổi tiếng của Pháp vừa đặt vấn đề mua cổ phần của Công ty Vàng bạc Đá quý Phú Nhuận PNJ, nhưng Chủ tịch Hội đồng quản trị Cao Thị Ngọc Dung cho biết PNJ không thiếu vốn và không muốn “đốt cháy” giai đoạn, phát triển quá nhanh. Khả năng vẫn bỏ ngỏ cho đến khi PNJ đưa nhà máy mới đầu tư vào hoạt động.

Hoàng Anh Gia Lai đang tính đến khả năng phát hành cổ phiếu công ty cao su (công ty con của HAG) cho nước ngoài. HAG, theo lời Tổng giám đốc Đoàn Nguyên Đức, sẽ rút khỏi lĩnh vực bất động sản sau ba năm nữa.

Cổ phiếu ở Việt Nam đang rất rẻ so với chính bản thân nó cách đây 4-5 năm và so với giá trị những doanh nghiệp kinh doanh có lãi. Tuy nhiên giá không phải là tất cả. Quan trọng là đồng tiền đầu tư phải mang lại lợi nhuận, mà thị trường chứng khoán lúc này giống như “cái thùng không đáy”, giá vẫn đang rớt. Vốn gián tiếp nước ngoài, do đó, khó mà neo đậu.

Source: http://cafef.vn/2011120910245297CA31/nam-2012-cac-quy-ngoai-co-kha-nang-thoai-von-khoang-25000-ty-dong.chn

Thomson Reuters: Screen test

IN SEVEN years as head of Reuters, Tom Glocer brought the British-based news agency from the verge of bankruptcy to a state of rude health. But he has done less well as chief executive of Thomson Reuters, the company created when Thomson, a Canadian purveyor of professional information for lawyers, accountants and others, bought Reuters in 2008. Bloomberg, the firm’s American rival, has almost wiped out its once-clear lead (see chart). On December 1st Mr Glocer said he would step down at the end of the year. His replacement, James Smith, the chief operating officer, is a former Thomson man.

The revenues of the professional division of Thomson Reuters grew by 10% in the year to the third quarter, but those of the markets division—which provides financial data and services, and accounts for more than half of total sales—managed only 1%. Last year that division launched a new information platform, Eikon, to compete with the terminals offered by Bloomberg, but just 8,000 customers have taken it up. The company has 400,000 financial-data subscribers in all.

Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg are the big fish in the professional-publishing pond, at least eight times larger than their nearest competitor. Bloomberg, besides expanding its terminals business, which has over 300,000 customers (at about $20,000 a pop), is pushing into government-related news and data. In 2010 it launched Bloomberg Government, which competes with Congressional Quarterly, a sister company of The Economist. In September it made its biggest purchase ever, spending $990m on BNA, a legal- and tax-information firm.

So what happened to Mr Glocer’s winning streak? His allies say his departure was always just a matter of time: once a firm buys another, it completes the takeover by putting its own people in charge. The Thomson family still owns 55% of the company, and some think the generous price Mr Glocer secured from Thomson for Reuters made him all the more vulnerable.

But he might have stayed longer were it not for a mix of bad luck and overconfidence. Eikon, intended to replace Reuters’ grab bag of services with a single offering, was designed to be more user-friendly than Bloomberg’s devices, but it was launched hastily and with flaws. With hindsight, a more gradual upgrade might have been more prudent. This summer, under pressure from the Thomson family, Mr Glocer fired Devin Wenig, a close ally he had put in charge of creating Eikon, and took it over himself—tying his prospects even more closely to Eikon’s.

Perhaps Mr Smith can do better. He will almost certainly have a freer hand, and some upgrades to Eikon are planned for next year. But these are still stormy seas. According to Claudio Aspesi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, an investment bank, it took most professional-publishing firms three to four years to recover from the 2001 recession. This time, Bernstein predicts, revenue growth at Thomson Reuters will not reach pre-crash levels until at least 2015.

One area of potential growth, though, is trading services. Changes in financial regulation in America and Europe will force a lot of trading in derivatives from the murky world of private “over-the-counter” deals onto exchanges, where contracts will be standardised and prices quoted. This presents both Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg with an opportunity to gather and sell data on these markets and perhaps to capture a share of the trade by linking banks and their clients through their own electronic trading platforms. The market for these derivatives is gigantic. A competitive edge there could make a big difference to both companies’ fortunes.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541413?fsrc=rss%7Cbus

Mexico’s plunging peso: iArriba, arriba!

DOLLARS and pesos cross the border between America and Mexico in greater numbers than ever. The $400 billion-worth of trade in 2010 made Mexico America’s biggest trading partner after China and Canada. Greenbacks are so common south of the frontier that in some neighbourhoods peso coins are known as cuoras, a mispronunciation of “quarters”.

Lately the relationship between the currencies has been rocky. Between July and November the peso fell by 19% against the dollar, hitting its lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis. It has since bobbed back a little as prospects across the border have improved a tad. Nonetheless, its performance so far in the second half of this year has been the weakest of any Latin American currency.

Mexico is not the only emerging market with wobbly money. Nervousness about the global economy, thanks to the euro zone’s debt crisis, has sent investors running from exotic currencies into safe, familiar ones. Big manufacturing countries everywhere, from South Korea to Poland, have suffered from worries about the impact of another recession on manufacturing, says Jose Wynne of Barclays Capital.

Three more forces have pulled the peso down. Mexico has stronger ties to America than any other big Latin American country: nearly 80% of its exports go there. (Brazil, by contrast, sends less than half its exports to rich countries.) Bad news from America hits the peso hard. Second, traders use the peso as a proxy hedge for the region, as it is the only Latin American currency to be traded around the clock. Some of the peso’s biggest dips have happened overnight, during trading in Europe and Asia, notes Sergio Martin, chief economist at HSBC in Mexico.

Finally, Mexico’s central bank is less willing than others to intervene. Whereas Brazil, Colombia and Peru have all sold dollars to support their currencies, the Banco de México has left the peso to the markets, even buying dollars now and then to build up its foreign reserves. That is changing: on November 29th Mexico’s currency commission (made up of central bankers and finance-ministry officials) announced that the dollar-buying would end, and that up to $400m would be sold on days when the peso dipped by over 2%. The mechanism, last used in 2009, will temper volatility rather than defend the peso’s value, the bank says. The peso rallied a little after the announcement.

The cheap peso has helped Mexican exporters through a time of weak demand in their main market and rising competition in Asia. Mr Martin calculates that the real depreciation of the peso since the 2008 crisis is about 13%. “We are probably very close now to the Chinese unit labour cost,” he says. Nissan and Honda are among the carmakers persuaded to build new plants in Mexico. The country’s share of America’s imports last year was 12%, the highest ever. Partly for this reason, Mexico’s economy has held up better than its currency (see chart). This year it will grow faster than Brazil, which this week reported flat GDP in the latest quarter.

But growth could eventually be threatened by the country’s weak currency. It has meant pricier imports, which have put pressure on inflation, currently only 3.4% but creeping up. The sickly state of the American economy means that Mexico’s central bank is hoping to cut interest rates to keep growth on track. But as long as inflation remains a risk, that decision will be postponed. Most analysts forecast that the peso will appreciate next year. Frustratingly for Mexico, that hinges more on events in Europe and America than what happens at home.

Source: http://www.economist.com/node/21541426

Loan Market Isn't on Borrowed Time

Remember the halcyon days of June 2007? Stocks were soaring and the phrase "Greek ruins" inspired travel plans rather than bank runs. It was also the month that Canadian telecom giant BCE accepted an offer for what would have been the world's largest leveraged buyout, and the trailing default rate on leveraged loans fell to an all-time low of 0.15%.



A year later, stocks were past their peak and Greece was heading for disaster. Meanwhile, the BCE deal was dead and that default rate was on its way back up toward the 10.8% peak it hit in November 2009.

Today, the default rate is within a whisker of its all-time low, hitting 0.17% in November, according to the LCD team at Standard & Poor's Capital IQ. But the market clearly isn't buying it: Leveraged loans' average spread above Libor is 6.3%, implying a default rate running at 6.6%, according to LCD's Steve Miller.

The nexus of fear is in Europe—still long on speeches but short on definitive solutions to the euro zone's crisis. A banking panic there, freezing credit, would slam leveraged loans and other risky assets. Such fear is undoubtedly holding back buyout activity in Europe, down about 19% annualized according to Dealogic. Even if clobbered stock-market valuations are tempting, only the bravest private-equity firm would jump in today.

Yet investors with faith in Europe's ability to heal itself— such as those currently pushing down Italian bond yields—can also point to underlying strengths in the leveraged loan market. U.S. corporate profits have been growing strongly, bolstering balance sheets. The ratio of liquid financial assets to total liabilities for non-banks is now at its highest level since the mid-1970s, according to Citigroup.

Firms have also been knocking down the wall of refinancing built during the pre-crisis borrowing binge. At the end of 2009, $404 billion of leveraged loans were set to come due between 2012 and 2014, according to LCD. Now, the burden is under $150 billion as firms have paid off debt and refinanced with bonds.

The bigger issue will be finding buyers for new loans. The financial crisis left lasting scars on credit markets, including the sharp shrinkage of collateralized loan obligations. CLO funds were the go-to buyers of the go-go years. Barclays Capital estimates remaining CLO funds could absorb $60 billion of new loans next year, dwindling to perhaps just $10 billion in 2014. Issuance this year is forecast to be up to $175 billion. Despite the market's underlying strengths, therefore, leveraged loans will have to be priced to tempt non-CLO buyers, such as loan mutual funds.

Although the default rate will surely move higher over time, in the absence of a European meltdown a spike looks unlikely. On that basis, yields look attractive already.

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204083204577082251565060684.html?mod=WSJ_Heard_LEFTTopNews

Banks Prep for Life After Euro

Some central banks in Europe have started weighing contingency plans to prepare for the possibility that countries leave the euro zone or the currency union breaks apart entirely, according to people familiar with the matter.

The first signs are surfacing that central banks are thinking about how to resuscitate currencies based on bank notes that haven't been printed since the first euros went into circulation in January 2002.

At least one—the Central Bank of Ireland—is evaluating whether it needs to secure additional access to printing presses in case it has to churn out new bank notes to support a reborn national currency, according to people familiar with the matter.

Outside the 17-country euro zone, numerous European central banks are eyeing defensive measures to protect against the possible fallout if the euro zone were to unravel, other people said. Several, including Switzerland, are considering possible replacements for the euro as the external reference point, or peg, they use to try to keep their currencies' values stable.

The central banks' planning is preliminary, according to the people familiar with the matter. It doesn't represent an expectation that the euro zone is headed for dissolution.

But the fact central bankers are even studying the possibility, which until this fall was considered unthinkable, underscores how swiftly conditions have deteriorated. Policy makers, central bankers and investors around the world have pinned their hopes on this week's Brussels summit to forge a long-awaited solution to the Continent's two-year financial crisis, which was ignited by doubts over countries' abilities to pay their debts.

The stakes are high. A failure of Europe's leaders to defuse the crisis would fuel already growing doubts about the viability of the euro zone. Many policy makers, bankers and other experts fear the monetary union's unraveling would not only reverse a decade of economic integration but also would trigger financial chaos.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. put out a report Wednesday that advised investors and companies to hedge against a collapse of the euro zone—though the bank said the likelihood of that happening was just 20%. It said many corporate clients were buying currency derivatives to place bets against the euro.

Before the formal launch of the euro in January 2002, an army of planners spent years choreographing the logistics of the currency's debut, including the minting of billions of bank notes and coins and the distribution of the new currency to banks and businesses across the Continent. Disassembling the bloc would be messy at best. Among the many challenges, loans and deposits currently denominated in euros would have to be switched to new currencies. And individual countries would need to decide whether to dust off their old currencies and, if so, how to quickly produce large quantities of paper money.

In Montenegro, which used Germany's Deutsche mark as legal tender before it adopted the euro in 2002, central bank officials are weighing their options for life after the euro. The Balkan country would have "a wide range of possibilities, from using another foreign currency to the introduction of a domestic currency," said Nikola Fabris, chief economist at Montenegro's central bank. One problem with the latter option: Montenegro doesn't have the capacity to print its own money, he said.

Most euro-zone central banks maintain at least limited capacities to print bank notes. While the European Central Bank is responsible for determining the euro zone's supply of bank notes, it doesn't actually print them. The ECB outsources the work to central banks of euro-zone countries. Each year, groups of countries are assigned the task of printing millions of bank notes in specific denominations.

The countries have different arrangements for printing their shares of the notes. Some, like Greece and Ireland, own their printing presses. Others outsource to private companies.

The assignments vary from year to year. Last year, Ireland printed 127.5 million €10 notes, and nothing else, according to its annual report. This year, it was among 11 countries assigned to print a total of 1.71 billion €5 notes.

In recent weeks, officials at Ireland's central bank have held preliminary discussions about whether they might need to acquire additional printing capacity in case the euro zone ruptures or Ireland exits in order to return to its prior currency, the Irish pound, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials have discussed reactivating old printers or enlisting a private company, the people said. "All kinds of things are being looked at that weren't being looked at two months ago," according to a person at one meeting. A spokeswoman for the Irish Central Bank declined to comment.

In Greece, widely regarded as the country most likely to leave the euro zone because of its fiscal problems, the central bank has a bank-note printing facility called IETA. Built in 1941, the Attica plant today is outfitted with "state-of-the-art machinery," according to the Bank of Greece's website. But IETA's printing in recent years has been limited. It has been one of five or six countries responsible for printing batches of €10 notes, according to the ECB.

Athens has buzzed with rumors over the past year that the Bank of Greece was secretly printing drachmas, Greece's pre-euro currency. Widely circulated joke emails featured drachma bank notes bearing the image of then-Prime Minister George Papandreou. The rumors at times have been blamed for triggering waves of withdrawals from Greek retail banks.

A Bank of Greece spokesman said the bank isn't looking for ways to boost its printing capacity. "There has been no talk regarding this issue," he said.

Some euros are currently produced outside the euro zone. In the northern England city of Gateshead, for example, a De La Rue PLC plant prints bank notes on behalf of several euro-zone countries, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Gateshead facility also serves as a backup plant for the Bank of England, which has a separate contract with De La Rue to print British pounds, according to a Bank of England spokesman.

The situation has worried some Bank of England officials, according to a person familiar with the matter. The concern is that if the euro zone unraveled, the Gateshead facility could be overwhelmed with requests from former euro-zone countries to print their national currencies, the person said.

That has prompted the Bank of England to consider steps to ensure that its ability to print British pounds isn't compromised, the person said.

The Bank of England spokesman said the bank isn't looking to "gain additional access to De La Rue's facility in Gateshead." A De La Rue spokeswoman declined to comment.

While some euro-zone countries have their own printing presses, "there might be other opportunities arising from any possible breakup of the euro as many of the smaller countries don't have state printing works," said Tim Cobbold, De La Rue's chief executive, in a statement. He noted that it usually takes about six months to develop a new currency with the necessary security features.

In Switzerland, which like the U.K. isn't part of the euro zone, the central bank has used the euro as its external reference point in its efforts to keep the Swiss franc's value stable.

Now, officials at the Swiss National Bank are considering what currency or basket of currencies would replace the euro as its reference point for the currency ceiling, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Before the advent of the euro, Germany's mark was Switzerland's main point of reference—including a period in the 1970s when the Swiss National Bank pegged the franc against the mark to rein in a surge in the Swiss currency. Today, as in the 1970s, Germany is Switzerland's largest trading partner, so a new Deutsche mark could in theory substitute for the euro, according to this person, although the bank is considering other scenarios, such as the formation of more than one currency bloc within Europe.

Central bank officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose convertible mark is currently pegged to the euro, could switch to whatever hard currency emerges in the case of a breakup of the euro, a spokeswoman said. Before Bosnian officials fixed the national currency against the euro in 2002, they used the Deutsche mark as the peg.

Latvia's currency, the lat, is also pegged to the euro. The country's central bank doesn't expect the euro's demise but "could be expected" to look for a potential new peg among other European countries with "prudent fiscal policies" and with which Latvia already trades heavily, said a spokesman for Latvijas Banka.

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203413304577084483874422516.html?mod=WSJAsia_hpp_LEFTTopStories